🔗 Share this article Will Scotland finally break the New Zealand curse? New Zealand implemented several changes to the squad that defeated Ireland Autumn Nations Series: Scotland v New Zealand Where: Murrayfield Stadium, the Scottish capital Date: this weekend Kick-off: 3:10 PM GMT Things were simpler then. Match number four of Scotland and New Zealand. A packed stadium, a 0-0 draw, January 1964. Euphoria at full-time. A pitch invasion to reflect the home team's momentous achievement. Having beaten three home nations, the All Blacks had at last been stopped in a Test. A contemporary reporter was nearly overcome with excitement. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he reported breathlessly and somewhat optimistically. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain." Exiting the ground after the match, home supporters would have had hope for the future. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and zero victories, but obvious indications that maybe one was not far off. Three years later, New Zealand beat the Scots. Half a decade later, they beat them again. Three years further on, same story. Another five-year gap and, indeed, the pattern continued. Recent History Two decades of matches later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. From Christchurch to Dunedin, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - the landscapes have changed but not the outcomes. During his tenure, Scotland's coach has ended losing runs in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this is another level. This is 32 games across 120 years. Among rugby's most persistent curses. Team News In recent years the comprehensive defeats have reduced to eight points, five points and eight points in recent encounters, but New Zealand consistently prevail. Through their brilliance, physical dominance, their chicanery, they secure victory. We're now at the point of the week where the optimism that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is likely diminishing. Hope is colliding with history. Key Absences Recent updates revealed that Fagerson was unavailable. For Scotland's hopes it was a significant setback. The prop has been absent since spring, but he's a freak and if available then his absence from play would not have been too worrying. In an era when most props are replaced long before the hour-mark, his endurance stands out. Unmatched playing time in the Six Nations. Squad Depth Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with Northampton. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. While Rae is capable, his Test career consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years. Once Rae's shift ends, his replacement takes over. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, evidence is lacking that he's All Black-beating class. Coaching Choices The coach has made unexpected selections, partly expected, some curious. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces van der Merwe's physical approach. The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, with Darge among substitutes. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23. Historical Context Darcy Graham was a try-scorer in the 31-23 defeat to the All Blacks in the previous encounter Against Ireland, the All Blacks secured the first leg of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They started slowly, despite numerical advantage, but their last-quarter demolition secured victory. That and Ireland's defensive shape, offensive struggles, their line-out and their scrum collapsing. Statistical Analysis Despite late-game surges, the final quarter is not where New Zealand typically dominates. Across international matches going back three years, they've scored 87 tries in opening periods and 60 in the second half. Strong opening performances, excellent second quarters, 26 in the third and solid finishes. They start aggressively. What Scotland Needs Against Scotland in 2022, New Zealand scored early in the opening seven minutes. Leading 14-0, victory seemed assured. Scotland fought back impressively to hit them with 23 unanswered points. The clear message is that, metaphorically, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from the start - maintaining intensity. Over the last decade, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have needed to score in the high-20s. Scottish scoring only occasionally against New Zealand. Final Analysis Everything has to go right for Scotland. Absolutely everything. If they start butchering chances early on then forget it. Disciplinary issues? A high penalty count? Set-piece struggles? The game is lost. But what if everything does go right? A blistering beginning. Vocal support. Bedlam. Clinical finishing. Russell being Russell. Darcy Graham's brilliance. Fantasy rugby, perhaps. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from the Scottish team that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If the capability exists, it's about time it came out; a century is sufficient.